
Lakewood, CO - A report prepared for the National Ski Areas Association (NSAA) concludes that the effects of the current economic downturn upon ski season visitation will be limited this year, unless well below-normal snowfall affects many regions of the U.S.
The report, prepared for the NSAA by RRC Associates, looks at two potential scenarios: a weak economy with sustainable snowfall, and a weak economy with erratic snowfall. The report shows that over the past 20 years, skier and snowboarder visitation is much more aligned with snowfall patterns than with economic conditions.
“When snow is good, it trumps bad consumer confidence and recessionary forces,” author Nolan Rosall wrote in his report to the NSAA. “The most obvious example of a season that looked like this was the 1981/82 season. The economy was in a
deep recession, consumer confidence was at historic lows, but the snow was fantastic and the industry rebounded from the disastrous 1980/81 season.”
Rosall did acknowledge that in times of high consumer confidence, confidence in snow conditions generally remained high as well, even when perceptions of erratic snowfall exist. When consumer confidence and snowfall are both low, Rosall wrote, “poor snow becomes the scapegoat for cancelling that trip or delaying booking to the last moment. The clearest historical example of this pattern is the contrast between the 1989/90 season and the 1990/91 season. During the 1989/90 season consumer confidence was relatively high, but snow was relatively weak. While visitation was down significantly, the decline was not as severe as the downturn of observed in 1980/81 when consumer confidence was much lower. Just after the 1989/90 season the economy entered a recessionary period, consumer confidence plummeted, and on aggregate, snowfall wasn’t great that winter. The result was the second worst season on record and a total of 46.7 million visits.”
Rosall’s report did not consider the effects of an economic recovery, as the current situation has already set the tone for the coming ski and snowboard season, he opines.
The report forecasts that skiers and snowboarders will stay closer to home this winter, opting to take more day trips to regional resorts than book extended destination visits. Thus the report predicts that isolated destination resorts, far from population centers, will experience the most dramatic impact of the current economic climate.
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October 13 2008 |
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