MARKET WATCH: Some Interesting Economic Numbers
Jeff Harbaugh
- June 03 2009
- 1,092 views
- 5 comments
The only place I actually pay money on the internet to get information is from a group called Stratfor Global Intelligence.
They sent me some information today that included the following table.
In the grand scheme of things, you might wonder why gross domestic product declines over the last year from countries around the world would matter much in our small corner of the global economy. But we aren’t as little as we use to be, and most major brands get a bunch of their revenue from outside the United States.
As you can see, the United States has had by far the smallest decline in GDP over 12 months through April. The next least worst country, France, had a decline that’s 23% worse than ours.
For a number of reasons, the rest of the world’s recession started after ours, is worse, and will probably last longer. If you are a global brand that has, so far, had some luck with your international sales holding up as U.S. sales fell, you might want to think long and hard about this. In the U.S., we’re at about the level of the 1982 recession. In the rest of the world, it’s worse.
Jeff Harbaugh is a consultant for the action sports industry and works with companies to identify and focus on critical business issues and opportunities fundamental to the bottom line. For more information, visit www.jeffharbaugh.com.
»
June 4th, 2009 at 6:19 am
It is obvious our GDP is shrinking. So why do we keep shipping jobs overseas, Jeff? Why hasn't the manufacturing paradigm shift begin to occur? Will we continue to have a growing unemployment problem while nearly the entire nations consumer goods are made in China? Some will continue to sight cheap labor but I feel it would be safe to assume that it would take less time (possibly 90% less), save freight (therefore using less fossil fuels) and create millions of at least minimum wage jobs here in the USA. My guess is many who have been out of work for months would be happy to get a minimum wage job, with benefits and the potential future of more $ as their job history increases.
Handing good jobs to other countries makes little to no sense. I just don't get it.
June 5th, 2009 at 12:11 am
Mark,
I'm never sure how to respond to the "shipping jobs overseas" phrase.+ But let's look at the issue of jobs losses from the point of view of the domestic auto industry, which is in the news.
I read that at its peak, the United Auto Workers had 490,000 members. This was decades ago- the auto industry's problems didn't just appear this year. When the restructuring is complete that number is going to be down to 45,000 or so I think I saw..
Does that mean that 445,000 jobs got sent overseas? Nope. First, our productivity has grown dramatically. That's a good thing, though it means we can do the same work with fewer people. What happened to those people? Some of them probably got new jobs making the robots being used in the car plants. Some of them are working for Honda or Toyota in Tennesses or Alabama to name a few. But wait, you say, those people are getting paid less or at least don't have as good a retirement plan and medical insurance.
(continued next post)
June 5th, 2009 at 12:11 am
You're right. And at the individual and family level it's obviously painful when somebody loses a job or takes a cut in pay. Been there, done that.
But I wonder if we could take a slightly longer view. At the end of World War II, the US had a clear and massive advantage in making automobiles. That's easy to have when the rest of the industrial world is a pile of rubble. By the 60s, that started to change. Now, many countries have mastered the technology of designing and making cars, they are all making them, and we have a tremendous oversupply of products that are all mostly pretty good and not that different from each other.
Kind of like snowboards or skateboards.
June 5th, 2009 at 12:12 am
The US is no longer better than anybody else at making cars so why are we so anxious to be in this industry? I'd rather see the country focused on software, or communications, or biotechnology or any other place where we have an advantage- because that's where we might be able to create some good paying jobs.
Jobs and industries come and go. It's always been that way and always will be. And I can tell you that people in China, or whereever, who are making cars and can make as good a product as we do cheaper don't give a damn about auto workers losing their jobs here. So we have a choice. We can either let the market evolve and suffer the pain that involves or pay to keep non competitive jobs either through some form of tax or, ultimately, the tax of inflation.
Hope that's helpful. Thanks for the comment.